Giants can pull off upset; here's how

Are the Giants likely to beat the Patriots on Super Bowl Sunday? No. I suspect that the few people predicting New York to beat New England don't so much believe it as they have talked themselves into believing it because they want to believe it. They like the Giants, they dislike the Patriots, or they have contrarian streaks and want to buck conventional wisdom.

But at the same time, the Giants have a chance, and not just a chance of the "Sure, Tom Brady could get hurt on the first play" variety. The Patriots are the best team in football and quite possibly the best team ever to play football, but that doesn't mean that on a given day, the Giants couldn't beat them. After all, the Giants came up just short when they lost to the Patriots 38-35 at the end of the regular season. The Giants could play a bit better than they did that night, the Patriots could play a bit worse, and the Giants could end up holding the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

So what needs to happen for the Giants to pull the upset? Here are five keys to victory:

1. Eli Manning has to continue his mistake-free playoff run

The single most surprising part of this NFL postseason has been the way Manning, the Giants' fourth-year quarterback, has avoided mistakes. After a regular season in which he threw 20 interceptions in 16 games, Manning has zero interceptions in three playoff games. Manning is making wise decisions — including throwing the ball away and taking sacks when nothing is open — in a way that he too often failed to do during the regular season and, for that matter, during his entire NFL career.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick has a reputation as one of the best in the business at devising game plans that force opposing quarterbacks to make mistakes, and the Patriots' defensive players — especially cornerback Asante Samuel — will make sure the Super Bowl is Manning's toughest playoff game. But if Manning rises up under pressure, the Giants will be in good shape.

2. The Giants' running game must produce

The first time the Giants played the Patriots, their offensive attack was mostly through the air. New York's running backs gained just 66 yards on 16 carries. That's a bit surprising, considering that the Giants had one of the league's best running games in 2007, and the Patriots' greatest shortcoming was stopping the run.

But the good news for the Giants is they have a weapon at their disposal that they lacked the first time they played the Patriots. Rookie running back Ahmad Bradshaw, a speedy, shifty runner who has been the Giants' leading rusher during the playoffs, was injured and missed the regular-season matchup. A couple of big plays from Ahmad Bradshaw — along with some tough runs from starting running back Brandon Jacobs — could turn the game in the Giants' favor.

3. Hit Tom Brady early and hit him often

During the regular season, the Giants were as good as any team in the league at rushing the passer, and they did it mostly with their defensive linemen, Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck and Michael Strahan. In the playoffs, however, the Giants have just three sacks in three games, including one by Strahan and none by Umenyiora or Tuck.

The key to disrupting the Patriots' passing attack will be for the Giants' defensive line to return to its regular-season ways. When Brady has time to sit back, scan the field, and wait for one of his receivers to get open, he's lethal. If the Giants can hit him — and do so without having to rush so many players that they leave some of the Patriots' receivers open — that's the best way to stop him.

4. Focus on Randy Moss

The first time these teams played, the Giants had a 28-23 lead in the fourth quarter when Tom Brady dropped back to pass and threw deep along the right sideline for his favorite receiver, Moss. The Giants dodged a bullet when the pass fell incomplete. So on the very next play they did it again — Brady to Moss deep along the right sideline. This time Moss caught it for a 65-yard touchdown that gave the Patriots a lead they wouldn't relinquish.

Breakdowns like that just can't happen in the Super Bowl. The Giants can't let up against Moss and can't let him get deeper than the deepest player in their secondary, even if it means they give up a lot of short passes to other receivers. Yes, the Patriots' first two playoff opponents have kept Moss in check and still lost, but at least they haven't been blown out. The only way the Giants can keep the game close enough to end up on top at the end of the fourth quarter is to keep Moss from turning the game into a shootout.

5. Make plays on special teams

Most of the time, New England's special teams are better than New York's. But special teams are inconsistent. All it takes is one blocked punt, one botched snap, one missed tackle, and the whole game can change. Whether it's the Giants' dynamic young kickoff returner, Domenik Hixon, their veteran punt-return man, R.W. McQuarters, or a player no one is even thinking about blocking a kick, special teams can turn the tide suddenly and unexpectedly.

And if the Giants string together a few of those sudden, unexpected plays, they could pull off the most unexpected of results. The Patriots are, based on everything we know, the better team, and the team more likely to win on Super Bowl Sunday. But just because they should win doesn't mean they will.

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