The only sure thing is the hype

In 2002, the Houston Texans began the NFL draft by choosing David Carr as their first pick ever. Then, after Carolina took Julius Peppers, Detroit chose Joey Harrington and Buffalo picked 6-foot-8, 360-pound offensive tackle Mike Williams.

That was just the way most mock drafts had them, all four assumed to be future stars.

Six years later, Carr is a backup QB with the Giants, his third team; Harrington also is on his third team; and Williams is out of the NFL. Even Peppers, a star early, has had back-to-back bad seasons, and his former North Carolina teammate, defensive tackle Ryan Sims, taken sixth by Kansas City, is another major failure.

If the draft has become the NFL's second-most anticipated event after the Super Bowl, it's also one in which many "future Hall of Famers" turn out to be duds. These days, the increasing number of people writing, reporting and blogging about the NFL turn out mock draft after mock draft, some starting as early as the week after the Super Bowl.

Nor does analysis stop after the draft. Every team is graded instantly. The results are haphazard, of course - no one can analyze a draft the day it happens, including the people doing the drafting.

"We're giving these guys grades and they haven't even taken any classes or exams yet," laughs Bill Polian, the president of the Colts, whose success rate is as good as anyone's in nearly a quarter century with Buffalo, Carolina and Indianapolis.

The current example is the New York Giants, whose surprise run to a title last season probably wouldn't have happened without the rookies. Seven made significant contributions in the playoffs, including running back Ahmad Bradshaw, the 250th of 255 players chosen.

Yet they were ranked at the bottom in many post-draft

"report cards" issued immediately after last year's selections.

"We just did what we always do, evaluate everything our scouts and coaches tell us, then put it together and make a choice," says Jerry Reese, who last year wore two hats: rookie general manager and in his old job as player personnel director.

"It came out well, but there's no guarantee that the same thing will happen again. All we can do is try our best."

The draft starts next Saturday at Radio City Music Hall with a slightly revised format. It will begin three hours later, at 3 p.m. EDT, and there will be only 10 minutes between picks in the first round, then 7 minutes in the second, down from 15 and 10 in past years. Only two rounds will be held the first day, with five on Sunday.

But for the teams, the draft is a year-round thing.

For fans and media, it starts right after the Super Bowl, even before the scouting combine. Since then, an inordinate amount of time has been spent on revising those mock draft as players rise (Boise State offensive tackle Ryan Clady and Troy cornerback Leodis McKelvin); or fall (Oklahoma receiver Malcolm Kelly and Penn State linebacker Dan Connor); or fall, then rise again (Michigan receiver Mario Manningham).

The surest thing this year, in part because of his genes, is said to be Chris Long, the defensive end from Virginia and the son of Hall of Famer Howie Long. As good as his father? Check back in a few years.

How about quarterbacks this year? The top one is Matt Ryan of Boston College. But he's not rated as highly as the 2004 QBs (Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger) or the 2006 guys (Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler.) And maybe he won't turn out as well as the ones in the second tier (Louisville's Brian Brohm, Michigan's Chad Henne, Delaware's Joe Flacco) who are considered late first/early second-round picks.

And look at QBs who will go lower - Tom Brady,was a sixth-rounder, 199th overall in 2000, after all. One sleeper possibility: San Diego's Josh Johnson, whose TD-to-interception ratio last year was 43-1, an incredible number even in lower level competition.

All in all, the draft is an event that has spawned a cottage industry.

[More at http://blogs.nypost.com]